Prediction Market Order Books
Read bid, ask, midpoint, spread, depth and imbalance for outcome tokens.
Begin with the executable market object.
The headline probability hides executable sides and available size. The order book shows how much belief can actually trade near the displayed coordinate.
Read bid, ask, midpoint, spread, depth and imbalance for outcome tokens.
Make the quote arithmetic explicit.
Notation and units
Decimal rates and volatilities, year-fraction time and continuous compounding unless stated otherwise.
Record venue, timestamp, and convention.
The venue, timestamp, executable side and data status are part of every market observation.
Midpoints and derived probabilities are analytical coordinates, not guaranteed executable levels.
Licensing, freshness and resolution rules determine how the observation may be used.
“An unstated convention is a future reconciliation break.”— THEQUANTBATEMAN
Distinguish observation from inference.
Liquidity diagnostics, event monitoring, transaction-cost context and stale-price detection.
Ask what can actually be traded or hedged.
Start from the executable side and timestamp. Derived Foundations signals are only as reliable as the market state and resolution convention beneath them.
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