Prediction Event Market Outcome and Token
Keep event, market, outcome and CLOB token identifiers distinct.
Define the numerical question and error budget.
An event groups related questions. Each market defines a condition, each outcome names one possible payoff, and each outcome token is the asset that actually trades in the book.
Keep event, market, outcome and CLOB token identifiers distinct.
Specify the estimator or discretization.
Notation and units
Decimal rates and volatilities, year-fraction time and continuous compounding unless stated otherwise.
Expose convergence and stability conditions.
The numerical target, discretization and stopping rule must be fixed before comparing outputs.
Convergence is assessed against bias, variance or residual tolerances rather than visual smoothness.
Finite precision, boundary treatment and input conditioning can dominate model error.
“An unstated convention is a future reconciliation break.”— THEQUANTBATEMAN
Connect controls to an observable output.
Prevents broken joins, wrong subscriptions and accidental flattening of multi-market events.
Monitor bias, variance, and failure modes.
Report the Foundations number with its convergence evidence. A stable-looking output can still carry discretization bias or an ill-conditioned input.
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