Prediction Event Market Outcome and Token
Keep event, market, outcome and CLOB token identifiers distinct.
Build the mental model first.
An event groups related questions. Each market defines a condition, each outcome names one possible payoff, and each outcome token is the asset that actually trades in the book.
Keep event, market, outcome and CLOB token identifiers distinct.
Now make it exact.
Notation and units
Decimal rates and volatilities, year-fraction time and continuous compounding unless stated otherwise.
Every model has a price.
Educational conventions are stated explicitly and may simplify market quotation or settlement details.
Rates are continuously compounded unless the section says otherwise.
Inputs are deterministic in the base model.
“An unstated convention is a future reconciliation break.”— THEQUANTBATEMAN
Why a quant cares.
Prevents broken joins, wrong subscriptions and accidental flattening of multi-market events.
The hedge has opinions.
Start with the quote convention, then ask which Foundations risk survives the hedge. A number without its convention is merely well-dressed ambiguity.
Ask Bateman about this model →