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Market Price vs Model Price

Keep observed quotes separate from calculated fair values.

Reviewed 2026-08-10TheQuantBateman ResearchReading note
01Intuition

Name the object before manipulating it.

A market price is an observation with venue, timestamp and executable conditions. A model price is a conditional calculation under inputs and assumptions.

ONE-LINE DEFINITION

Keep observed quotes separate from calculated fair values.

02Mathematics

State the governing relationship.

Vmodel=M(x,θ,c),Pmarket=observed quoteV_{model}=\mathcal{M}(x,\theta,c), \quad P_{market}=\text{observed quote}
Notation and units

Decimal rates and volatilities, year-fraction time and continuous compounding unless stated otherwise.

03Assumptions

Draw the boundary of the claim.

01

Definitions, units and information sets are fixed before the mathematical relationship is applied.

02

Rates and volatilities use decimal units and time uses year fractions unless stated otherwise.

03

The relationship is local to its stated assumptions and should not be extrapolated mechanically.

“An unstated convention is a future reconciliation break.”— THEQUANTBATEMAN
04Market use

Connect the definition to an observable.

Calibration, relative-value analysis and governance depend on never confusing the two.

Intuition→Mathematics→Implementation→Desk risk
05Desk view
FRONT OFFICE VIEW

Translate the concept into a risk question.

State the convention, identify the observable and ask which Foundations risk remains after the proposed hedge.

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06Related

Follow the nearest dependency.